Getting metrics to move has always been the goal for those of us in the business of building companies. Up and to the right - that’s a rule we live by. But it’s not the most important one. The first rule is to build things that add real value to people’s lives. And as all our lives shift rapidly into something we don’t quite recognize, the opportunity to bring value has never been greater. A few weeks ago, we sent an email to our LPs discussing this remarkable consequence of crises - innovation tends to follow. It’s an idea that’s been reinforced by every conversation I’ve had with an entrepreneur in the past couple of months. Founders are already looking for ways to build for tomorrow.
Today, it might be impossible to predict what comes next - but it’s clear that this pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis will fundamentally change how people, businesses, and the world operate. Times of immense change have a way of changing human behavior. We can already see this happening around us and to us -- everything, including the ways we work, and communicate, looks nothing like they did a mere month ago. The ways we get around, clean our homes, buy groceries, and exercise have shifted. Socializing with our friends, receiving medical care, and educating our children might never again look like they did in January. And while we don’t yet know which of these new behaviors will endure, it’s hard to ignore the very real opportunities that exist for entrepreneurs to build for a whole new spectrum of human needs.
We saw a swell of innovation after the 2008 financial crisis and we are seeing it again today. Entrepreneurs are already observing these changes in human behavior and finding new opportunities. These curious minds will sift through the challenges of today to identify the solutions that will be needed tomorrow. Existing companies pivoting their models and new ones starting up. While many industries have been and will continue to be hard hit by the pandemic - travel, oil and gas, restaurants, retail, services, and more - some sectors are emerging as areas of opportunity.
The pandemic is necessitating rapid change and innovation in the healthcare industry. It’s incredible to see how rapidly telemedicine practices have shifted just in the past few weeks. Insurance codes for telemedicine changed almost overnight to allow for reimbursement. Urgent questions have risen loudly to the fore that beg for entrepreneurial response. How can hospitals scale services faster? Will the cost of care drop dramatically with the rise of telemedicine? Will wearables help in the detection of illness ahead of patients demonstrating symptoms?
Outside of healthcare, the “future of work” continues to be reinvented. If remote work becomes the new normal, what new tools and behaviors will emerge to make people more productive? How will collaboration evolve? What changes will we see in hiring, training, management, org structure, and every other corner of business?
Will we see a new generation of entrepreneurs emerge from the 30M+ unemployed workers? In 2008, the on-demand economy emerged and dozens of companies were built upon the 1099 economy. What new set of tools will enable this generation to build businesses. With college students not in the classroom, what new companies will they dream up? How will the nature of higher education change?
There’s fertile ground to be found in our newly restructured personal lives as well. The transition from “in real life” to online has led to gyms, schools, and even churches leveraging digital solutions to engage with their communities. Kids and teachers are stress-testing online classrooms - will we see a boom in new learning platforms? What tools will emerge for the fitness industry to manage classes and customers virtually? Will VR/AR see a resurgence as people look for new forms of entertainment and ways to engage with a community virtually? An increase in idle time has changed the nature of social media engagement and led to increases in UGC - what will that mean for content producers? Will mass migration to Zoom unseat Facebook as the platform people use for personal connection? How will social networks and applications evolve to bring people closer together? Will consumers demand more privacy or closed networks to better communicate and stay in touch?
Every question indicates a potential market opportunity - a chance to build something that brings real value to people's lives.
Our world has changed indelibly. And that change will continue through this crisis and beyond. If previous crises are any indication, the best entrepreneurs will rise to meet this moment. They’ll embrace the shift in human behavior, ask the right questions, identify an opportunity, and then start building for a world that looks different than the one we knew before. If you are one of those founders, I’d love to hear from you (chris@fuelcapital.com).